Ties with Turkiye Expected to Improve as Libya Addresses Internal Differences
In the wake of a recent plane crash involving a Libyan general in Turkiye, analysts suggest that the relationship between Libya and Turkiye is poised for improvement, particularly as Libya seeks to address its internal divisions. The crash, which occurred on October 10, 2023, involved General Khalifa Haftar, a prominent figure in the Libyan National Army (LNA) and a key player in the country’s ongoing conflict. While the incident raised concerns about the stability of Libyan-Turkish relations, experts believe it will not significantly alter Turkiye’s strategic role in Libya.
Libya has been mired in conflict since the overthrow of longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The country has since experienced a power struggle between rival factions, primarily the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the LNA, which controls significant portions of eastern Libya. The situation has been further complicated by foreign interventions, with Turkiye emerging as a key ally of the GNU, providing military support and training to its forces.
The recent plane crash, which resulted in the deaths of several individuals, including high-ranking military officials, has drawn attention to the precarious nature of Libya’s political landscape. General Haftar, who has been a central figure in the Libyan conflict, has received backing from various foreign powers, including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. His relationship with Turkiye has been contentious, particularly given Turkiye’s support for the GNU.
Despite the crash, analysts maintain that Turkiye’s involvement in Libya is unlikely to diminish. “This incident will not change the broader framework of Turkiye’s role within Libya,” said Dr. Amina El-Mahdi, a political analyst specializing in North African affairs. “Turkiye has invested heavily in Libya, both politically and militarily, and it is in their interest to maintain a strong presence in the region.”
Turkiye’s engagement in Libya has included the deployment of troops, the provision of military equipment, and the establishment of training programs for Libyan forces. This support has been instrumental in bolstering the GNU’s position against the LNA, particularly during the 2020 Tripoli offensive, where Turkiye’s intervention played a crucial role in repelling Haftar’s forces.
The implications of the crash extend beyond the immediate concerns of Libyan-Turkish relations. As Libya grapples with its internal divisions, the need for a unified approach to governance and security becomes increasingly urgent. The GNU has faced criticism for its inability to effectively manage the country’s resources and address the needs of its citizens. In recent months, protests have erupted in various cities, driven by frustrations over economic hardships, corruption, and a lack of basic services.
In response to these challenges, the GNU has initiated a series of dialogues aimed at reconciling differences among Libya’s various factions. These discussions, which involve key stakeholders from both the east and west of the country, are seen as a critical step toward achieving a more stable political environment. The GNU’s efforts to foster unity may also serve to strengthen its position in negotiations with foreign partners, including Turkiye.
The potential for improved relations between Libya and Turkiye is further underscored by the broader geopolitical context in the region. As the conflict in Libya continues to draw in external actors, the need for a coordinated approach to stability and security becomes paramount. Turkiye’s involvement in Libya is part of a larger strategy to expand its influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, where it has interests in energy exploration and maritime rights.
Moreover, the recent normalization of relations between Turkiye and several Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, may create new opportunities for collaboration in Libya. Analysts suggest that a more unified Arab front could facilitate a resolution to the ongoing conflict, with Turkiye playing a pivotal role in mediating discussions between rival factions.
As Libya navigates its complex political landscape, the relationship with Turkiye will likely remain a focal point in the country’s efforts to achieve stability. The crash involving General Haftar serves as a reminder of the fragility of the situation, but it also highlights the importance of international partnerships in addressing Libya’s internal challenges. The coming months will be critical as the GNU seeks to consolidate power and engage with external actors to foster a more secure and prosperous future for Libya.
